About two years or so ago, I’m a little fuzzy on the date in particular, I made a prediction to a friend (or someone in my family, or a coworker, two years ago is a long time to remember specifically). Because of this, and because I want to get the credit when I’m correct (or be liable if incorrect), I’ve decided to write down this prediction:

By 2033 at the latest, the NCAA will not exist.

They’re making too much money and not compensating the people who are providing the product and it needs to end. The NCAA as an organization is too big, too unwieldy and too stuck in the mud with their backwards thinking as to what college athletics is to continue to exist.

Gone are the days when students decided to try out for football in the fall, and then decide to play baseball in the spring as well. What we have now are specialized players who are stuck in college because either they’re forced to (by the NBA) or because there isn’t a better alternative (like an NFL minor league).

Anyone who thinks the players on the football and basketball teams are “amateurs” who should just be happy with getting an education are lying to themselves. There is nothing amateur about their schedules, amount of time they spend practicing and preparing.

There are a bunch of issues that need to be figured out and debated before this can happen. These are just some of the questions that need to be figured out before we can fix the issue, and getting to a correct answer for all of these is going to take some time.

• What about the non-revenue sports?
• Are  women’s sports players paid even though they aren’t necessarily generating money?
• Are better players compensated more for their skill compared to the lesser skilled players?
• How can the smaller schools compete with the larger ones if players can always get more money by going to the larger schools?
• Do you just give them money? Or is compensation restricted to certain things like housing and food?

Though I’m confident that the NCAA won’t exist by 2033, I’m not sure what exactly going to cause its fall. But here’s a stab at what I think is going to happen, at least in some form.

1) The NCAA will slowly start bending on rules regarding compensation starting at the conference level.

2) The NCAA won’t move quickly enough on this and either the conferences, or the high profile / big money schools will get together and create a new organization where they get to decide what the rules are. In one fell swoop, the NCAA will be gone.

So here’s hoping that this page from the internet will still be around in 2033, and here’s hoping that the NCAA will not.